Going Up?

2002 ushered in an era of lower salaries for free agents, but Carlos Beltran could clear the $15-million-a-year wall

Miguel Tejada couldn't do it.

Neither could Jim Thome nor Vladimir Guerrero.

Baseball hasn't seen a free agent sign a contract worth more than $15 million per year since its new labor agreement was hammered out in August 2002.

Gone, it seems, are the days when Alex Rodriguez could pull down a deal worth $25 million per year, or Manny Ramirez at $20 million, or Jason Giambi at $17 million.

Then again, not since Rodriguez hit the market in 2000 has baseball seen a free agent like this year's creme de la creme, Carlos Beltran, who is represented by the same high-powered agent, Scott Boras.

And not since that wild offseason of four years ago - when owners seemingly handed $10 million salaries to anyone with a pulse - has the market been this ripe for escalation.

So how much will Beltran get? And what will that mean for teams such as the Orioles, who are trying to rebuild while spending within their means? The clues will start coming tomorrow, when teams can start making formal offers to other clubs' free agents. Today marks the close of a 15-day window after the World Series in which teams have exclusive negotiating rights with their own players.

As expected, the sides have barely budged during this period, meaning it'll be open season for the likes of Beltran, Adrian Beltre, Magglio Ordonez, J.D. Drew, Jason Varitek, Derek Lowe and some non-Boras clients, including Pedro Martinez and Carl Pavano.

Is the sport headed back to the free-spending days of 2000?

"My short answer to that is no, at least not in the short term," said veteran agent Barry Axelrod, who has two of the top free-agent pitchers in Matt Morris and Matt Clement.

"I don't think we'll see anything above $15 million a year," Axelrod added, "but [Beltran] could get to that level."

Among agents, Axelrod would qualify as a realist, while Boras has built an empire by pushing the envelope. This time, there have been reports Boras wants a 10-year deal for Beltran worth close to $200 million.

Even last year, when his biggest free agent was catcher Ivan Rodriguez, who signed a four-year, $40 million deal with the Detroit Tigers, Boras refused to give up the fight.

"If A-Rod were in this market today," Boras said, "he'd get as much or more than he got three years ago."

But the salaries kept going down.

In January 2002, seven months before the new labor agreement was signed, Giambi got a seven-year, $120 million deal to play first base for the New York Yankees.

But the next offseason, Thome - another power-hitting first baseman - signed the richest free-agent contract, going to the Philadelphia Phillies for six years, $85 million, or $14.2 million per year.

Last winter, Guerrero was the lead dog at $14 million per year from the Anaheim Angels, and the Orioles got Tejada, a former MVP, for $12 million per season.

The case for Beltran

Beltran figures to reverse the trend. He's a switch-hitting center fielder who slugged 38 home runs last year and stole 42 bases. He sizzled in the postseason for the Houston Astros, batting .435 with eight home runs in 12 games and making numerous highlight reel defensive plays.

He's only 27, and unlike Guerrero, who had missed time in 2003 with a back injury, he has no lingering injury concerns.

"There are probably eight or nine teams that definitely want a center fielder; they think it's a key to their franchise," Boras said. "They view this as a rare opportunity to get a 27-year-old athlete who can hit for power and steal bases and go get [fly balls]. And obviously, Beltran's postseason added a new value to him because he was phenomenal."

The Orioles are one of numerous teams who covet Beltran, but they are long shots to land him, especially because their most pressing need is starting pitching.

Still, whatever contract Beltran gets will affect them, because it will cause other free-agent deals to spike accordingly. Almost everyone in baseball expects Beltran to land with the Yankees after a bidding war with the Astros and possibly the New York Mets and Angels.

Some think that could push his price past $18 million per year.

"I don't really see it, but it only takes one club that wants to do that," said Orioles executive vice president Jim Beattie. "Everybody has their own reasons for wanting to do something. When A-Rod did his [deal], I didn't foresee that at all. You kind of thought $20 million."

Rodriguez was 25 when he hit the market in 2000, and he was already a four-time All-Star coming off a season in which he hit .316 with 41 homers and 132 RBIs.

Boras had previously negotiated Kevin Brown's $15 million per year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1998. Carlos Delgado raised the bar to $17 million per year when he signed an extension with the Toronto Blue Jays in October 2000.

Then all hell broke loose.

That December, at the winter meetings in Dallas, a steady stream of players made their way to the podium with staggering contracts. Rodriguez got $252 million, Ramirez $160 million and Mike Hampton $121 million.