Risky business at quarterback

Ravens: By going with rookie Kyle Boller, coach Brian Billick bucks conventional wisdom and recent NFL history.

Ravens 2003

It's time for another leap of faith.

Four years after asking fans to take a disastrous jump with Scott Mitchell, Ravens coach Brian Billick is starting a new quarterback era with the same, old, controversial flair.

He is handing the keys to a potential playoff vehicle to rookie quarterback Kyle Boller when all the warning signs tell him otherwise.

History says Billick is wrong. Popular opinion says he's foolish. Even his own track record says to reconsider.

The safe bet would be to go with little-used veteran Chris Redman and bring his first-round pick along slowly. Instead, Billick is rolling the dice.

How tough are the odds? Since 1970, there have been 59 quarterbacks drafted in the first round, and only one -- the Miami Dolphins' Dan Marino -- has led a team to the playoffs in his rookie season.

"I've done the homework, and it's not a particularly pretty picture," Billick said. "But I've always subscribed to the old saying that if the majority were right, the majority would be rich. Conventional thinking is belied by the fact of not taking into account what the circumstances are and who the individual is. For that reason, as unconventional as it may be, that's the choice that we are making.

"Anybody that wants to represent that by starting a rookie we are basically building for the future is mistaken. This is a playoff-caliber team."

This decision raised eyebrows because Billick, who has referred to himself as "Stat Boy," is defying the numbers.

Rookie quarterbacks traditionally adhere to three statistics, and they're all bad.

They throw more interceptions than touchdown passes. They complete only half of their throws. And they lose more games than they win.

But the Ravens believe it's about thinking outside the box when analyzing how well a quarterback will perform.

The Dallas Cowboys' Troy Aikman and Indianapolis Colts' Peyton Manning went a combined 4-28 as rookies, but neither had a talented supporting cast. Boller enters a situation in which 13 of the 22 starters are first- or second-round draft picks, and that includes four Pro Bowl performers.

"I think I am prepared," Boller said. "The people that surround me on the team will make it easier for me to go out there and be successful. So my situation is really different than the other [rookie] quarterbacks."

Whatever the circumstances, the past is daunting.

Manning threw 28 interceptions as a rookie. Aikman compiled a 55.7 quarterback rating. The Denver Broncos' John Elway completed 47.5 percent of his passes.

"If Manning and Aikman is what is sitting on the other side of this kind of play, that doesn't sound too bad for me," Billick said.

It is believed only two first-round picks since 1979 -- Marino (7-2 in 1983) and the Carolina Panthers' Kerry Collins (7-6 in 1995) -- had winning records as a rookie starter.

"History is not on our side, but that doesn't mean it can't be done," offensive left tackle Jonathan Ogden said. "But I have faith in our coaches that they won't put him in there unless he's ready. I'm not too worried about it."

Easing into the job

The general rule around the league is to let a rookie carry a clipboard rather than carry the burden of going against cover-2 defenses, zone blitzes and pass rushers coming from the blind side.

Easing a first-round quarterback into the starting role has worked more often than not recently. Michael Vick, Steve McNair, Chad Pennington, Daunte Culpepper and Donovan McNabb benefited from standing on the sideline early. But Akili Smith, Jim Druckenmiller and Cade McNown flopped despite first-year coddling.

"It's always been astonishing watching teams bring in a rookie quarterback and then watching him fall flat on his face during that first year," Tennessee Titans general manager Floyd Reese told ESPN. "Still, people continue to do that. It's like throwing someone into the water before they learn how to swim."

Atlanta Falcons coach Dan Reeves said he learned from his experience with Elway in Denver to bring Vick along more slowly. According to Reeves, rookies might be ready to play physically but will have a tough time adjusting mentally, because the game is faster and more complex than in college.

"It's like taking a Spanish course," Reeves told Atlanta reporters. "You might pass the test, but then you go down to Mexico, and you wouldn't understand a thing. You've got to get comfortable with it."

On a carousel

There has never been a quarterback of the future under Billick, only quarterbacks of the moment.

Boller becomes the ninth -- and youngest -- starter in Billick's 65th regular-season game as Ravens coach. Over that time, starting quarterbacks have lasted as short as six quarters (Mitchell) and no longer than 18 starts (Tony Banks).