BEIJING - Diplomats from six nations began meetings here this morning about North Korea's nuclear program but at a table with so many agendas, analysts say, that the best hopes for any meaningful progress rest on the diplomacy of one country in particular: China.
None of the participants - the United States, Japan, Russia, China and the two Koreas - has given any indication that the three days of talks will produce anything substantive. Beyond hopes for more talks, analysts said, the best-case scenario would be a statement at the end of the talks in which North Korea declares a willingness to end its nuclear program in the future, and the other nations declare interest in aiding Pyongyang and assuring its security.
But after months of posturing and tough rhetoric from North Korea and the Bush administration, participants and experts had declared that merely holding the talks marked a success. And many credit China's surprisingly assertive diplomacy with bringing North Korea to the six-sided table.
"It's an opaque exchange between Pyongyang and Beijing, but our sense has been that they've been extremely helpful," a U.S. State Department official said recently, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Just getting us to the table, they've had a real central role, and they should be given some credit for that."
China's diplomats met for weeks with neighboring countries and with the United States to organize this week's talks, said Chinese experts. Some analysts believe North Korea agreed to participate only after Chinese President Hu Jintao sent North Korean President Kim Jong Il a letter urging him to engage, which was apparently hand-delivered last month by Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Dai Bingguo.
All four of North Korea's neighbors, and the United States, want to prevent the Korean peninsula from going nuclear. But China, as North Korea's historical ally and main supplier of fuel and food aid, has the most direct leverage with Kim's regime.
"How much China can push North Korea, that will be the key," said Park Syung Je of the Institute for Peace Affairs in Seoul.
A shift
China's high-profile role in these talks reflects a shift that has developed in the 10 months since North Korea admitted the existence of a uranium enrichment program. Chinese experts say the shift in China's public attitude reflects how seriously it views North Korea's efforts to develop nuclear weapons as a potential threat to its security and domestic stability.
