For nearly three years, the economy has been propelled by a single, but powerful force - consumers.
They snapped up cars, homes and electronic equipment at an astonishing pace.
But now, the mighty consumer appears to have hit the wall, his confidence shaken, his spending grown tenuous. Personal bankruptcies and credit-card debt are at record highs.
While economists agree that consumers are in a fragile state, many still believe they are not tapped out and will continue to carry the economy.
The economy "is still on the shoulders of the consumer," said Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board, a New York-based business research group. "Those are still pretty broad shoulders. They are bruised, but they are still pretty broad."
Added Milton Ezrati, senior economist and strategist at Lord, Abbett & Co., a money management firm in Jersey City, N.J. : "I think the consumer can contribute enough to keep the economy growing. It is not a question of whether we are going to grow with or without the consumer. Without the consumer there is no economy."
The economy, however, is showing signs of distress. Just 15 months after it emerged from recession, there is growing belief that the economy could slide back into one if the war in Iraq drags on.
Even without war worries, though, the economy is facing problems. Job growth has been anemic, unemployment is creeping up and is expected to continue rising, and corporations have been reluctant to spend money on new equipment and facilities.
More recently, consumers have shown signs of pulling back, especially on purchases of homes and cars - the very sales that recently fueled the economy.
In February, sales of new homes dropped 8.1 percent, the poorest showing since August 2000. In the same period, car sales dipped 1.5 percent after a 9.9 percent increase in January; and factory orders for big-ticket goods, such as refrigerators, computers and washing machines, fell 1.5 percent after a 1.7 percent gain the prior month.
Many economists blame the poor results on the huge snowstorm that hit the East Coast over the Presidents Day weekend, which kept consumers out of malls and stores.
More worrisome, though, is consumer confidence, which soared three years ago as the stock market peaked, but plunged last month to its lowest level since October 1993, when the economy was recovering from the 1991 recession.
