GULLANE, Scotland - History suggests that Tiger Woods will win the 131st British Open this weekend at Muirfield.
The list of the 14 past Open champions at this 111-year-old course considered by many to be the purest test of any in the rotation includes modern legends such as Jack Nicklaus and those from long ago such as Harry Vardon. Starting with a fellow named Harold Hilton back in 1892, there is not a slouch in the bunch.
Logic, too, tells us that Woods, 26, will become the second player in history to win the first three legs of golf's Grand Slam. (Ben Hogan performed the feat in 1953, but a scheduling conflict prevented him from competing in the PGA Championship after he won the British.)
Based on Woods' performance at the Masters in April and at last month's U.S. Open, and on a weather forecast that predicts the course will get drier, faster and tougher once play begins today, it is hard to believe Woods won't go home Sunday with his second Claret Jug and the ninth major championship of his career.
"It's a different style than the courses we've played [in the British Open]," Woods said earlier this week. "It's still, nonetheless, one of the most fair golf courses we've played because everything is right in front of you. There is no hidden agendas, no tricks or anything like that. It's one of those golf courses that very fair and [says], `Come get me.' "
That's sort of the same message Woods is sending to the rest of the field trying to trip him up in his pursuit of becoming the first player to win all four majors in the same calendar year. Rated a 7-4 favorite to win by British bookmakers, Woods will have the advantage of not having to hit his driver many times because, with the course at a shade more than 7,000 yards, he can attack it with a 2-iron.
"I was hitting a 2-iron out there sometimes over 300 yards because it was running along the ground," Woods said. "The fairways, even though they're soft, if you land the ball in the correct knob, it will release and just continue to go. If you hit it low, the ball is going to run on a links course."
It won't be as benign as St. Andrews, where Woods won in an eight-shot runaway two years ago by avoiding the bunkers the entire week. Nor should Muirfield prove as monstrous as the Black Course at Bethpage State Park in Long Island, N.Y., was in last month's U.S. Open, simply because of the comparative lengths of the two venues.
