Maryland aviation officials estimate that it will take all of this year and into next for Baltimore-Washington International Airport to recover from the industrywide tailspin touched off by the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
Passenger numbers are projected to fall by more than 1 million this year to 18.3 million, a decline of about 6.6 percent over the record 19.6 million passengers recorded in 2000. Revenue -- previously projected to grow by 4 percent -- will be flat as a result of increased security costs and diminished passenger and parking revenue, airport officials estimate.
Things could be a lot worse. Wars, recessions and aviation disasters have historically been followed by a year of falling passenger totals at airports nationwide.
Despite getting hit with all three simultaneously last fall, BWI is signing deals with new airlines and pressing ahead with a $1.8 billion construction program at a time when most major airports have been forced to put expansion plans on hold.
And while passenger numbers are projected to decline for the first time in years, BWI has gained market share in recent months, making it the busiest of the Baltimore-Washington area's three major international airports. Airports nationwide saw passenger traffic decline by an average of 20 percent last fall, while BWI traffic was off less than 7 percent in October and 10.4 percent in November.
"If you look at the history of the airport, there have been dips before associated with recessions, the gulf war and other events, but those have always been temporary, and it's certainly the case here," said Transportation Secretary John D. Porcari.
BWI's resilience can be attributed in part to flight restrictions at Washington Reagan National Airport, state ownership and the presence of Southwest Airlines, according to industry analysts.
Federal regulators temporarily restricted traffic at Reagan National because its proximity to the nation's capital raised safety concerns. That forced airlines and passengers to make greater use of BWI and Washington Dulles International Airport -- a trend that is expected to continue this year.
At the same time, Southwest, BWI's largest carrier, was the only major airline to maintain its entire schedule after the terrorist attacks. And because BWI is state-owned, it can draw on Maryland's transportation trust fund when revenues are weak.
