WITH LAST YEAR'S decline in homicides, Baltimore has undeniably become a somewhat less dangerous place.
But the city might be even safer than the drop in homicides indicates - provided you take into account the higher rate of traffic deaths in most counties and the fact that the vast majority of homicides involve people who know each other or are connected with the drug trade.
Do that, and you find that Baltimore turns out to be only marginally more hazardous to live in or visit than many nearby suburbs - and less so than more distant places, such as Charles and Frederick counties.
That's the approach that's needed to draw the most accurate picture of the relative safety of urban areas, argues William H. Lucy, professor in the Department of Urban and Environmental Planning at the University of Virginia.
"You have to consider what you encounter when you leave your house to walk some place or drive some place," Lucy said in an interview.
"What do people perceive as impacting safety? Homicides would be one factor. It's less obvious that traffic fatalities are another."
Lucy has been analyzing traffic fatality and homicide data for Virginia for years.
In a recent article in Planning, the monthly magazine of the American Planning Association, Lucy noted that Richmond was considerably safer than generally believed. The combined homicide-by-stranger rate (15 percent of all killings) and traffic fatality rate of Richmond in the 1990s was less than that of nine nearby counties. The reason: far more deadly accidents occurred in outlying areas, where people travel farther, faster.
Applying Lucy's analysis to Baltimore and Maryland for last year yields similar, if not quite as striking, results.
Even with Baltimore's decline in homicides last year from 305 to 262, the city had far more killings than any other jurisdiction in the state. Prince George's County, with 70 homicides, down from 95 in 1999, was second; Baltimore County, with 33, was third.
But the difference in the number of homicides by strangers is far less striking, with Baltimore at 39, Prince George's at 11, and Baltimore County at 5.
And Baltimore's record of traffic fatalities is less grim than those of some other jurisdictions. According to preliminary data from the Maryland State Highway Administration, 49 people died in accidents on the city's roads last year, behind Prince George's (97), Baltimore (79) and Anne Arundel (51) counties.
