A poor year, but a rich era for investors

The Ticker

January 03, 2001|By JULIUS WESTHEIMER

Notes and quotes as the new year opens:

LOOKING BACK: In 2000, the Dow Jones industrial average suffered its worst year since 1981, off 6.18 percent. The Nasdaq composite index gave its worst performance ever, down 39.3 percent. (But in 1999, the Nasdaq rocketed 85.6 percent.)

On the bright side, over a 75-year span, stocks returned an average 10.5 percent a year, half growth, half income.

Note: When President Clinton was inaugurated Jan. 20, 1993, the Dow Jones average stood at 3,241.95. When the market closed 2000, the Dow was at 10,786.85.

LOOKING AHEAD: Recent predictions for the Dow Jones close on Dec. 31, 2001, made by successful money managers: Brian Rogers, T. Rowe Price, 11,900; Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs, 13,000; Byron Wien, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, 12,000; Barbara Marcin, Gabelli Asset Management, 12,000; Beth Dater, Credit Suisse Warburg Pincus, 11,740.

WALL STREET WATCH: "Earlier this year, analysts were bullish when they shouldn't have been. Now they're bearish when they shouldn't be." (InterMarket Forecaster in this week's Barron's)

"The last leg of this bear market will end by the second quarter. There will be many buying opportunities as the market bottoms. Until then, stay 30 percent in stocks, 50 percent in bonds, 20 percent in money market funds." (Steve Leuthold, investment adviser)

"On the Nasdaq, if we get to 3,500, I'm going to be a very happy bear." (Henry Weingarten, the Astrologers Fund)

"It's just the changing of the president, not Alan Greenspan." (Kim Seung-Ik, South Korean banker)

"Prophesy as much as you like, but always hedge." (Oliver Wendell Holmes, 1861)

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