Decades of decline in population over for Albany

New York's capital expects census to count about 100,000 residents

ALBANY, N.Y. -- Five decades of population decline is over.

Experts say Albany's population will level off at slightly more than 100,000 in the 2000 census, narrowly averting getting shoved into the urban minor leagues.

The city isn't going to experience anything like dynamic growth, but experts believe the population has stabilized. There are several reasons for the turnaround. The number of people leaving the city isn't increasing. Experts also cited growing immigrant and minority communities, as well as a steady influx of college and university students.

"At a minimum, the out-migration of persons leaving the city has been substantially reduced in Albany -- it's not a declining city," said Rocky Ferraro, planning director of the Capital District Regional Planning Commission.

Since the 1950s, cities nationwide have been losing population to the suburbs. This trend was exacerbated in the Northeast as the industrial economic base folded. Upstate New York has been slow to recover from the economic downturn earlier this decade, which is why Albany's projected population increase isn't larger, Ferraro said.

The population of New York's capital city peaked in 1950 at 134,995, and has declined at each census since then, coming perilously close to 100,000 in 1990 when it hit 100,031.

It's about more than prestige. Dipping below 100,000 would have a devastating impact on the city's ability to attract business and on the amount of federal aid it receives. Failure to meet that mark would mean cuts in funding such as the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's Community Development block grant program, which is allocated based in part on population.

A drop below 100,000 makes it difficult to lure new development to the city, said Wallace Altes, president of the Albany-Colonie Regional Chamber of Commerce.

"Declining numbers can be very scary for businesses and can lead to reconsideration in investments," Altes said. "A growing population base typically translates into greater willingness on the part of investors."

Mayor Jerry Jennings said his "indicators" show that Albany's population may even top 104,000 in 2000. To ensure a complete and accurate count, the mayor has appointed a committee that will be enlisting the assistance of neighborhood associations, churches, social services providers and other groups, to encourage people to fill out census forms, which will arrive in the mail the last week in March.

The city's salvation may turn out to be the minorities and immigrants moving here. Albany's minority population is projected to increase in 2000. Sixty percent of the 12,000 people moved to the region between 1991 and 1994 were African-Americans, Hispanics or Asians, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released in 1997. These populations traditionally settle in inner cities.

The outcome of the 2000 census will also have an impact on politics. Redistricting for U.S. congressional seats and city wards is done based on census data.

The U.S. Census Bureau's most recent estimate done in 1997 was 103,564, compared with 100,031 in 1990. But some experts find that number overly optimistic.

"There are reasons to believe the city is growing, but that number is somewhat surprising," said Todd Swanstrom, political science professor at the State University of New York at Albany.

Ferraro also has a more conservative estimate for Albany's population in 2000: 101,733. That number would have been higher, Ferraro said, if not for the mid-1990s economic downturn from which upstate New York is still recovering.

Population estimates are made on the number of births and deaths in the city, new residential building permits filed and income tax information from the Internal Revenue Service. Actual head counts are only done every 10 years on April 1.

Pub Date: 03/25/99