WASHINGTON -- The administration's long-range hopes of paving the way for a peaceful post-Communist transition in Cuba will likely be hemmed in by two opposing forces: Fidel Castro and Congress.
President Clinton formally announced a series of measures yesterday to improve people-to-people ties by making travel easier, boosting academic contacts and allowing Americans to send more money and food to the Caribbean nation.
The announcement came a day after the administration opened the way for baseball diplomacy with Cuba.
But a powerful anti-Castro lobby on Capitol Hill continues to block both an easing of the 36-year-old economic embargo against the island and an improvement in official ties between Washington and Havana.
And while the Castro regime is willing to tolerate a measure of freedom for the Roman Catholic Church, nongovernmental organizations and even small private enterprises, it won't permit anything that threatens its survival.
"The balance of political power is still on the side of the traditional actors on Cuban policy: the hard-line elements of the Cuban exile community and the Cuban government," said Richard Nuccio, a former Clinton adviser on Cuba policy who is now a visiting scholar at Harvard.
But the Clinton administration is determined to exploit openings both in Cuba and on Capitol Hill that it hopes will pave the way for a peaceful transition to the post-Castro era.
"We are just going to pursue this relentlessly," a senior U.S. official said Monday.
Despite periodic crackdowns in Cuba, the administration believes last year's visit by Pope John Paul II provided opportunities for increased people-to-people contacts and private organizations.
Seizing on a shared passion for baseball, the administration intends to allow the Orioles to arrange exhibition games in Cuba and Baltimore -- provided the Castro regime agrees to turn the profits over to a charity, such as Catholic Relief Services.
Sports have traditionally served to improve diplomatic relations, starting with the pingpong diplomacy between the United States and China in the 1970s and more recent wrestling matches between Americans and Iranians.
Its economy hobbled by decades of communism and the U.S. embargo, Cuba is eager for American dollars and has allowed some private enterprise to develop outside strict government control, including small family-run restaurants and agricultural cooperatives.
