Bear is growling, but the bull may still be kicking

The Ticker

September 16, 1998|By Julius Westheimer

After watching a surprising three-day 408.85-point rally of the Dow Jones industrial average -- a surge that began Friday as the Starr report was released -- many people wonder where the stock market will travel from here. Recent views:

BEAR TRACKS: "One lesson to learn from the 1973-'74 devastating bear market," says U.S. News & World Report, "is that political instability (Watergate then, Lewinsky affair today) creates a poisonous atmosphere for stocks."

"All the talk you now hear of 'buy and hold' is more a Wall Street cop-out than good advice. This market's troubles with Russia, Asia, Latin America, worldwide deflation, etc., won't go away quickly." (The Pure Fundamentalist)

"The open secret is worldwide deflation. It adversely affects stocks, commodities, hard assets and bonds of weak issuers." (Elliott Wave Theorist)

"People are petrified to go home and then watch another of those emerging markets drop another shoe." (Michael Clark, Credit Suisse First Boston)

"Anyone who thinks severe problems in Russia and Asia don't forecast a global economic shrinkage may be overly complacent. We may not be in a bear market, but the bear has awakened." (Rex Rehfeld, Gruntal & Co., Baltimore)

BULL RUN: "It's scary to sail against gale force winds, but the bull market still lives. Premier growth stocks have been marked down sharply in a storm sale." (21 Forward)

"Problems in Russia hammered emerging markets' stocks worse than in many years. If you have a long horizon and can stand volatility headaches, this may be a buying opportunity." (Barron's)

"The 'heavy hitters' who sold before their vacations with the Dow around 9,000 are delighted to return to find they can buy back in at 8,000 or lower." (Moneypaper)

"There will come a point when it's time to buy. If you hold the 'great stocks,' keep holding." (Jim Cramer, hedge fund manager.)

"Worldwide markets have concluded the president will stay in office and the U.S. will have some leadership at a tricky time." (Hugh Johnson, investment chief, First Albany Corp.)

Pub Date: 9/16/98

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