Exceeding supply but not demand, the search for franchise quarterbacks takes center stage tomorrow when Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf headline the NFL draft.
The question is whether one or both will live up to the "franchise" mandate of draft day. And if it's only one, who gets it right -- the Indianapolis Colts, who pick first, or the San Diego Chargers, who pick second?
No less an authority than Baltimore draft guru Mel Kiper Jr., says he will be "shocked if they're not both great quarterbacks."
As for shock value, history shows that taking quarterbacks in the first round of the draft has never been more risky than in the 1990s. Of the 14 quarterbacks taken in the first round of the regular or supplemental draft this decade, seven turned out to be busts.
The not-so-magnificent seven include Andre Ware (seventh pick) from 1990, Dan McGwire (16th) and Todd Marinovich (24th) from 1991, and Tommy Maddox (25th) from 1992. All four played their way out of the league.
Right on their heels is this threesome: David Klingler, No. 6 in 1992; Rick Mirer, No. 2 in 1993; and Heath Shuler, No. 3 in 1994. They are salvageable, perhaps, but all will play with different teams this season.
When it comes to quarterbacks and the draft, the only certainty is there is no sure thing. Just ask the Colts. This is the third time in 15 years they will have spent the first pick of the draft on a quarterback.
The Colts have lots of experience picking quarterbacks in the first round, but not much success. In 1982, while still in Baltimore, they took Art Schlichter with the fourth pick. He was an abysmal failure.
In 1983, they selected certain Hall of Famer John Elway with the first pick, then traded him to Denver for a guard, a backup quarterback and the phone number of the Mayflower moving vans.
In 1990, they chose the self-absorbed Jeff George with the opening pick. By 1993, George had been traded.
Now, there's another first pick and another quarterback.
The last time quarterbacks went 1-2 in the draft was 1993. That's when the New England Patriots started down the Super Bowl path with Drew Bledsoe and the Seattle Seahawks started down the road to ruin with Mirer.
The only other time multiple quarterbacks led off the draft since the merger was 1971, when Jim Plunkett, Archie Manning -- father of Peyton -- and Dan Pastorini went on the first three picks.
Clearly, drafting a quarterback in the first round is a mixed bag. You can get lucky, like the Miami Dolphins did with Dan Marino on the 27th pick in 1983. Or you can blow the pick, like the Kansas City Chiefs did with Todd Blackledge on the seventh choice in the same draft.
The search for a franchise quarterback has left a lot of broken dreams in its wake.
"First of all, I think the quarterback position in college and the NFL probably is the weakest coached position on the team," said Terry Bradway, the Chiefs' new director of player personnel. "I know NFL teams have made a conscious effort to try to fix that.
"What has happened, the quality of quarterbacks in the league ** has diminished over the years. That's one of the reasons people have a tendency to reach for them more than before."
Forcing picks -- taking a player sooner than he ought to go -- is a fact of draft life. And it's common practice with quarterbacks, according to Gil Brandt, who was one of the league's shrewdest draft-masters during the Dallas Cowboys' first dynasty.
"Just because you go in the first round doesn't mean you're going to be in there," said Brandt, who writes about the draft on the Internet for the NFL now. "Teams force picks. Maddox was a forced pick [by Denver]. I think Ware was a forced pick [by Detroit]. I think people look at the draft and say, 'If we don't get a quarterback in the first round, we're not going to get one.' "
The urgency in locating a franchise quarterbacks sometimes outweighs all other concerns.
Consider the deal the San Diego Chargers made to move from the third pick overall in this year's draft to the second. General manager Bobby Beathard gave first- and second-round picks this year, another first in 1999, and two players, including return specialist Eric Metcalf, to the Arizona Cardinals to move up one spot.
Beathard, in critical need of a quarterback, covets Leaf, the Washington State quarterback, who is expected to go second.
"Bobby Beathard didn't give up all that just because [Leaf] has ability," said Ozzie Newsome, the Ravens vice president of player personnel. "He has a need."
Just as the Colts have a need with the first pick, after trading Jim Harbaugh and Paul Justin in the off-season. They're expected to pick Manning.
But are Manning and Leaf the two most talented players in the draft? Probably not.
"If there was a way you could weigh players like you do potatoes," Brandt said, "then probably [Andre] Wadsworth, [Randy] Moss, [Charles] Woodson and [Curtis] Enis would be ahead of these two quarterbacks.
