How experts think stocks will do in 1998

The Ticker

January 16, 1998|By JULIUS WESTHEIMER

HERE ARE recent stock market forecasts which may be useful for entrants in our 1998 Dow Jones contest.

BULL RUN: A recent CNBC-NBC poll showed that 60 percent of those surveyed predicted that the Dow Jones average would end the year at 9,000 or better.

"Because baby boomers haven't finished pumping money in stocks, the Great Bull Market will continue." (This week's Barron's.)

"If you made money in stocks in 1997, the message is clear: Keep doing what you're doing." (Kiplinger's Personal Finance Magazine, Jan.)

"The Dow will increase to between 8,600 and 8,900 by the end of 1998. Asian crisis will continue to send interest rates down and stocks up." (Douglas Cliggott, equities strategist, J. P. Morgan & Co.)

"Stock prices will be more dependent on earnings than previously. Both profits and the stock market are likely to advance eight to 10 percent in 1998." (R. S. Salomon Jr., in Forbes, Jan. 26.)

"Stocks have returned an annual average 10.7 percent return since 1926. From the level of Jan. 1, 1998, even a 5 percent increase would propel the Dow to 8,300 by year-end." (Financial Planning Perspectives.)

"80 percent of the time it pays to be an optimist." (Sam Hopkins, retired Alex. Brown partner.)

BEAR TRACKS: "We are nearing the end of the global bull market because we're faced with a multitude of earnings disappointments." (Global Mutual Fund Investor.)

"Global deflation clearly favors bonds over stocks. Margins and corporate profits will be squeezed. This is bad news for stocks." (Bank Credit Analyst.)

"Recent downward earnings revisions outnumbered upward forecasts, yet the S&P is near its peak. If downgrades continue, the market could hit a severe slump. High fliers could plummet on disappointing earnings news." (Moneypaper, January.)

"The Dow industrials could fall as low as 6,600." (David Shulman, stock strategist, Ulysses Management.)

"66 percent of 'sentiment indicators' are bullish, but interest rates are rising. Stay exclusively in money funds." (Addison Report.)

Pub Date: 1/16/98

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