TWO AGING DICTATORS began this year seeking to hold on to power in huge, mineral-rich Third World countries. One of them is thriving; the other is, at this writing, about to fall. Why do the two men seem headed for such different fates?
The dictators are Presidents Suharto of Indonesia and Mobutu Sese Seko of Zaire.
Both have ruled their nations for more than three decades, since the days of Lyndon B. Johnson's presidency. The two are, in their own ways, almost as much a legacy of America in the mid-1960s as the Beach Boys or the civil rights movement.
Coming to power after coups (Mobutu in 1965, Suharto in 1966), both strongmen won U.S. backing during the Cold War. In both cases, the United States feared that popular nationalist leaders (Patrice Lumumba in Zaire, President Sukarno in Indonesia) might come under the influence or control of Communist forces.
Suharto, 76, and Mobutu, 66, are comparable in other ways, too. For the past 30 years, both have led regimes noteworthy for their corruption as they parceled out access to gold, diamonds and other natural resources.
Now, as each fights the ravages of old age, they are being challenged by the followers and even the children of the leaders they defeated long ago.
Mobutu is losing power to Laurent Kabila, a disciple of Lumumba, while Suharto last year fended off a brief political challenge from Megawati Sukarnoputri, Sukarno's daughter.
Yet the two men now find themselves in strikingly different situations.
Mobutu's prospects last week seemed best described by the adjective applied to injured ballplayers: day to day. The question was not whether, but how soon, his reign would end.
Suharto, by contrast, is in the process of quietly staging another victory in an election he thoroughly controls. Indonesians will vote May 29 for 425 members of a 1,000-member Parliament (of the others, 75 come from the military and 500 are government-appointed).
Suharto's ruling party confidently forecasts that it will win more than 70 percent of the vote.
Election rallies have been prohibited. Speeches on television must be approved by the government.
Of late, the Indonesian regime has been seeking to repress not only political opposition but also a movement to boycott the elections.
For good measure, several Indonesian student and democracy activists have just been sentenced to long jail terms for subversion.
