Forget the regular NFL standings. The statistics that really count are those compiled against the point spread.
So, while Green Bay and Denver head their respective conferences with 8-1 records, they are perceived quite differently in betting circles.
The Packers are a mere 5-4 where the number is involved -- including 2-3 at home -- but the Broncos have been as good to the people who wagered on them as they have to their straight-up fans, covering eight of nine outings.
The only time Denver failed to beat the spread was Sept. 15 at home to Tampa Bay. The Broncos, favored by 13 1/2 , defeated the Buccaneers, 27-23.
The second-best point-spread record is shared by Washington, Philadelphia and Houston, at 7-2. Carolina and Pittsburgh follow at 6-3. The Steelers are 5-0 at home; the Panthers and Oilers 4-0.
Denver is 4-0 on the road, the only team to have covered every away outing. Chicago (0-3) and New Orleans (0-4) have yet to cover as visiting teams.
This week's picks
All bets in mythical dollars:
Bears at Broncos (-10 1/2 ): If John Elway's hamstring heals in time for him to start, I'll go with Denver. The Bears lost fiery linebacker Bryan Cox for the year with a broken thumb and are hurting even worse at tight end, down to starting a rookie who was No. 3 on the depth chart. Take Denver for $100.
Giants at Panthers (-4 1/2 ): The Panthers average 29.0 points at home, 14.8 on the road. They won't blow New York off the field, but their defense plays with the kind of aggressiveness certain to give Dan Reeves' pedestrian offense a lot of trouble. Take Carolina for $100.
Cardinals at Redskins (-10 1/2 ): A strong running game gives the Redskins trouble, as Buffalo showed. The Cardinals don't have that, and their passing game isn't much, either, with Boomer Esiason taking over for the injured Kent Graham. Look for the Redskins to rebound. Take Washington for $100.
Colts at Dolphins (-3 1/2 ): The Dolphins were done in by a bad fumble call at New England. They're desperate at 4-5, and should be able to cover against an Indianapolis club whose offensive line can't protect Jim Harbaugh or block for Marshall Faulk. Take Miami for $100.
Lions at Chargers (-4): San Diego is getting healthy just in time to face a Detroit squad that isn't too happy with its coaching staff. Center Courtney Hall is out, but quarterback Stan Humphries and defensive back Dwayne Harper might return from injuries for the Chargers. Take San Diego for $100.
Packers (-3) at Chiefs: The Chiefs' running game perked up a bit at Minnesota. Marcus Allen has a tough assignment again this week, but there's nothing wrong with the Kansas City defense, which figures to be primed for a maximum effort against a Packers passing attack missing its two top receivers. Take Kansas City for $250.
Bills at Eagles (-3 1/2 ): The Bills are similar to the Chiefs in that they have a sound, veteran defense. If Jim Kelly can keep from making costly mistakes the Bills should be able to win outright. I've been losing every week to Ty Detmer, the little devil. Take Buffalo for $250.
Cowboys at 49ers (-3 1/2 ): Jerry Rice is still the greatest, but San Francisco isn't getting much production from its other wide receivers, and the running game has been weak. I don't see the 49ers dominating. This contest should be close, and exciting, all the way. Take Dallas for $250.
Last week
Record: 5-3. Net for week: plus $5. Net for season: minus $910.
Staff selections
Week 11
Ravens at Jaguars (-3 1/2 )
John Eisenberg .. Jaguars
Gary Lambrecht .. Jaguars
Ken Murray ...... Jaguars
Mike Preston ... Jaguars
Vito Stellino ... Ravens
Cardinals at Redskins (-10 1/2 )
John Eisenberg .. Cardinals
Gary Lambrecht .. Redskins
Ken Murray ...... Redskins
Mike Preston .... Redskins
Vito Stellino ... Redskins
@Falcons (-1 1/2 ) at Rams
John Eisenberg .. Falcons
Gary Lambrecht .. Falcons
Ken Murray ...... Falcons
Mike Preston .... Falcons
Vito Stellino ... Falcons
@Bills at Eagles (-3 1/2 )
John Eisenberg .. Eagles
Gary Lambrecht .. Eagles
Ken Murray ...... Bills
Mike Preston .... Eagles
Vito Stellino ... Eagles
Packers (-3) at Chiefs
John Eisenberg .. Chiefs
Gary Lambrecht .. Chiefs
Ken Murray ...... Packers
Mike Preston .... Chiefs
Vito Stellino ... Packers
Oilers (-3 1/2 ) at Saints
John Eisenberg .. Oilers
Gary Lambrecht .. Oilers
Ken Murray ...... Saints
Mike Preston .... Oilers
Vito Stellino ... Oilers
Colts at Dolphins (-3 1/2 )
John Eisenberg .. Dolphins
Gary Lambrecht .. Dolphins
Ken Murray ...... Colts
Mike Preston .... Dolphins
Vito Stellino ... Dolphins
Patriots (-6 1/2 ) at Jets
John Eisenberg .. Jets
Gary Lambrecht .. Patriots
Ken Murray ...... Jets
Mike Preston .... Patriots
Vito Stellino ... Patriots
@Raiders (-5 1/2 ) at Bucs
John Eisenberg .. Bucs
Gary Lambrecht .. Raiders
Ken Murray ...... Raiders
Mike Preston .... Raiders
Vito Stellino ... Raiders
Steelers (-4) at Bengals
John Eisenberg .. Steelers
Gary Lambrecht .. Steelers
Ken Murray ...... Steelers
Mike Preston .... Steelers
Vito Stellino ... Steelers
Cowboys at 49ers (-3 1/2 )
John Eisenberg .. Cowboys
