Mirroring a national trend, a record number of Marylanders are registered to vote in the election Tuesday, mostly owing to new registrations from the so-called "motor-voter" law.
But as the election -- a presidential race and congressional contests that many are greeting with a yawn -- nears, officials, party operatives and political observers are wondering how much of the sleepy electorate will actually turn out to exercise their franchise.
The state has 2.5 million registered voters -- a figure that is up by roughly 125,000 since the 1992 presidential election. Political observers predict the turnout will be less than in 1992, when 81 percent of the voters went to the polls.
"It's not clear why people should be interested," said Eric "Rick" M. Uslaner, a professor of government and politics at University of Maryland College Park and an expert in electoral behavior. "There's no stirring campaign in Maryland."
Keith Haller, who heads Potomac Survey Research, a Bethesda polling firm, agreed.
"If there was last minute excitement for this presidential campaign, and it was cresting, you might then argue that the turnout would be affected," Haller said.
But, he said, "the ultimate turnout numbers will be less than we've seen in recent presidential elections" because of "disinterest in the candidates" and last-minute revelations about disturbing" fund-raising efforts by both parties.
"It's unimaginable that people would want to rush to the polls because the entire political process has been called into serious question by that," he said.
Nevertheless, Gene M. Raynor, the state election administrator, predicted a turnout of nearly 80 percent. It could possibly top the statewide turnout in 1992, when Bill Clinton won over George Bush by a margin second only to that in his home state of Arkansas.
"It's a very natural thing: people want to vote for a president of the United States," Raynor said. "A presidential general [election] is our highest voter turnout historically, and it will be this Tuesday also."
Democrats and others believe that President Clinton will win handily over Republican Bob Dole in Maryland -- a contention that local GOP leaders quietly concede.
Nevertheless, state Republicans are pleased with the gains they've made in voter registration since the 1992 election.
Statewide, Republicans saw the greatest increase in registered voters since 1992, up 57,933 for a total of 775,986 this year,
