HAGERSTOWN -- Some 1.6 million Americans are incarcerated, an unprecedented number, and a doubling in just over 10 years. Yet actual crime rates have been declining and the economy has been improving. The explanation probably involves growing public intolerance of crime and frustration over ineffective corrections.
The baby-boom ''echo'' will bring forth in the next 10 years a tidal wave of 18-to-24-year olds, the age group with the highest crime rate. Female crime rates are also rising steadily.
Maryland's correctional infrastructure is deteriorating, as the state's policy of requiring inmates to serve at least 50 percent of their sentences leads to overcrowding. The largest prison, 3,300-bed Maryland Correctional Training Center, experiences continuous plumbing problems. Fresh water and ice are trucked in sometimes. These costs are impossible to ignore or avoid. Prepare for another tax hike soon.
Crisis could be forestalled by reducing recidivism. There are available models that predict who will become a recidivist and who will not. Unfortunately, they require the removal of the emotional and political elements from corrections policy. And the current policies of the state's Division of Correction promote, rather than reduce, recidivism.
Prison populations consist of status offenders (recidivists, parole and probation violators -- 44 percent of the total) and non-status, first-time offenders (53 percent nationally). The other 3 percent are returned escapers or other classifications.
Solid evidence from the Bureau of Justice Statistics indicates that many first-time offenders need not, after serving their time, re-enter the cycle of conviction and incarceration. Successful first paroles were analyzed using 125,620 inmates released in 29 states. The National Corrections Reporting Program of 1992 used an exceptionally large statistical population and defined success as non-recidivism within three years after release. Inmates were categorized by crime: violent, property, drug or public-order (drunk driving, vandalism, etc.).
Surprisingly, all types of offenders were most successful when 63 percent of their maximum sentence was divided between prison time and parole time. The best mix for each offender differed. Drug offenders needed less prison time and more parole time. Violent offenders did not recidivate with 35 percent prison time and 28 percent parole time. The analysis also demonstrated clearly that imprisonment in higher or lower percentages increased recidivism.
