LONDON -- The irony is that if it weren't for the Irish Republican Army, Ireland would be effectively united by now.
Early indications are that the IRA broke the cease-fire because it was on the brink of splitting internally. The ''hard men'' who were talked into declaring a unilateral cease-fire in late 1994 had lost faith in their colleagues' promises that this tactic would finally bring the organization recognition as an equal negotiating partner in Irish affairs.
Facing a choice between internal division and renewed war, the IRA followed its instincts and went back to bombs. It has lost much of its remaining popular support by breaking the peace, but it still has enough dedicated ''soldiers'' to operate at a low level both in England and in Northern Ireland for many years to come.
What it cannot do is escape the basic paradox of its existence. It is an organization consecrated to the cause of a united Ireland -- and it has become the greatest obstacle to the realization of that goal.
Imagine for a moment that the IRA had not exploited the civil-rights struggle of the late '60s in Northern Ireland to re-launch an armed struggle against ''British occupation.''
The mistreatment of the Roman Catholic minority in the North by the Protestant majority would have been ended even more quickly if the Protestants had not been able to wrap themselves in the British flag. And in 1973, both the United Kingdom and Ireland joined the Common Market (now the European Union).
If there had been no war
If there had been no war in Northern Ireland, by now there would now have been 23 years of completely open borders between the Irish Republic and the North. Hundreds of thousands of people would have moved from the Republic to the North and vice versa. All kinds of joint business ventures would have sprung up, and the old tribal mistrust between Catholics and Protestants would have been greatly eroded. There might still be a sign marking the border on the road between Dublin and Belfast, but there would be no checkpoint, no delays and little sense that there are two separate countries on the island of Ireland. It would, in fact, be little different from crossing the border between England and Wales.
Thanks to the IRA, things are a bit different. More than 3,000 people are dead, and the inter-Irish border is one of the most heavily guarded in Europe. Mistrust between the two communities in Northern Ireland has never been greater, and the Protestant majority in the North still believes (falsely) that the Irish Republic is a monolithic Catholic juggernaut that would crush them if they abandoned their British ties.
