WASHINGTON -- Rather suddenly the prospects for global peace and freedom, economic growth and prosperity look less promising, and the world is once again beginning to appear a more dangerous place.
The two totalitarian giants, which seemed near death, are showing new signs of life and fight.
Both Russia and China were transformed when new leaders adopted new, more liberal, ''open'' policies. Deng Xiao Peng ''opened'' China -- sending Chinese students abroad, admitting foreign businessmen and introducing elements of a market economy -- private plots for peasants, differential rewards, foreign investment. The result of this ''opening'' was unprecedented trade, growth and prosperity.
Mikhail Gorbachev went further -- permitting open borders and open investigation, a free press and free elections. Boris Yeltsin continued and expanded his policies. The dramatic liberalization in both countries resulted from a significant change in the goals and characters of leaders. Now another change in China and Russia is under way in the leadership of each country, and once again new leaders foreshadow new policies.
Going back?
Communist and nationalist candidates led the pack in Russia's parliamentary elections last December. Now they are leading the opinion polls for the spring presidential elections. The very possibility that Russians might choose a communist president to govern the country along with a communist parliament raises serious questions about the future of Russian democracy, the Russian economy and Russia's relations with the world.
Would a communist government continue the privatization of the economy? They are already attempting to curtail it. Would it continue cooperation with the United States on nuclear matters? Would a communist government respect minority rights and submit itself to be judged by the electorate in the next elections? A Russia governed by a communist majority and equipped with all the nuclear weapons of the previous regime might well turn out to be as aggressive and expansionist and dangerous as the original communist model.
The consequences of the change can already be perceived in Mr. Yeltsin's recent appointments which brought to the cabinet a foreign minister with aggressive associates and habits and a defense minister hostile to the expansion of NATO. Their goals and styles resemble Bolsheviks of a past era. The assistance and restraint of the Clinton administration have had little visible effect.
