WASHINGTON -- In 1994, a Texas Republican made a brash prediction based on how much he thought Americans wanted a simpler tax system.
"The next president," said Rep. Dick Armey, "will be elected on a flat tax platform."
Mr. Armey is now House majority leader, and the flat tax is the hottest idea on an otherwise dull campaign trail.
Not that Mr. Armey had Malcolm Stevenson Forbes Jr. in mind, but the multimillionaire publisher has made a flat tax the centerpiece of his Republican presidential campaign -- and has ridden it to second place in the polls behind Bob Dole.
The "flat tax" would replace the existing tax code, with its five progressively higher rates, its hundreds of deductions, its thousands of rules and regulations, with a simple tax in which everyone would pay the same rate.
"That flat tax would be so simple, you could fill it out on a postcard," Mr. Forbes tells audiences. "A postcard that would say, in effect, 'Having a wonderful time; glad most of my money is here.' "
"A singularly unwise idea," counters Robert Greenstein, a liberal economist.
"Truly nutty," says former Gov. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, one of Mr. Forbes' rivals for the Republican nomination.
Mr. Forbes is a political neophyte and a man of inherited wealth. So much the better, say the plan's proponents: If someone who stands to make a killing can successfully push the flat tax, it must have genuine appeal.
Today's tax code calls for rates of 15 percent to 39.6 percent, though it's lower for those who itemize their federal deductions. The working poor do not have to pay. The vagaries of the myriad categories, exemptions and loopholes are what tend to infuriate middle-class taxpayers.
A common complaint is that those who can afford tax lawyers and accountants can evade their rightful share of the taxes. In some ways, this is a myth.
Under current law, according to Robert Eisner, a Northwestern University economist, those with incomes exceeding $200,000 pay some 24.4 percent of their total income in taxes -- a far higher percentage than for any other group. The wealthy would be the greatest beneficiaries of a flat tax.
Nevertheless, the complexity of the law, the desire to pay less and and fear of the Internal Revenue Service have created a climate for change. These desires have bloomed inside the Republican Party, a hothouse of anti-tax and anti-IRS sentiment.
