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Iran and the bomb: Let's not wait to act

November 22, 1994|By Gary Sick

THE STANDOFF and subsequent agreement between the United States and North Korea is a vivid reminder that procrastination is dangerous and expensive when dealing with would-be nuclear regimes. The world had suspected for a decade that the dictatorship of Kim Il Sung was secretly developing the capacity to build a nuclear weapon. But only after the evidence became overwhelming, and the possession of such weapons a real threat, did the United States and others begin to develop a serious response.

The most prominent candidate for the next proliferation crisis is Iran. But, because Iran's nuclear program is still extremely small and U.S. leverage is at its peak, there is a good chance of averting a full-blown crisis -- if the U.S. government acts now, with the same determination that was shown in the talks with North Korea.

When Assistant Secretary of State Robert Gallucci sat down with the North Korean negotiator, he had only a few cards to play. North Korea probably already had the makings of one or more bombs, and its conventional military threat to South Korea made coercion an excessively risky and probably unworkable option. In the end, Mr. Gallucci got the best deal he could. Rather than quibble about the terms, we should profit from the experience so we have a better hand to play the next time.

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Iran -- which is actively seeking nuclear-related equipment from many sources -- has a small research reactor that it purchased from the United States more than 20 years ago. Last year, Iran signed contracts with China and Russia for three nuclear power stations. Iran also attempted to acquire more dangerous research reactors from Argentina and China, but the United States intervened to squelch both deals.

Iran is a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and a thorough inspection of its known nuclear facilities last April resulted in a clean bill of health by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran's government flatly denies the existence of any nuclear weapons program, claiming that its interests are purely peaceful and oriented toward nuclear power production. This does not ring true. Iran's reserves of natural gas are sufficient to meet its domestic power needs for centuries. President Hashemi Rafsanjani, in his periodic reviews of Iran's energy policies, has never referred to plans for domestic nuclear power generation. The world is right to treat Iran's behavior with suspicion.

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