NFL draft lacks depth, talent, predictability NFL DRAFT

April 24, 1994|By Vito Stellino | Vito Stellino,Sun Staff Writer

When the 28 NFL teams open the doors to the college draft cupboard today, they'll find the shelves aren't well stocked.

"I guess it's about an average draft," said Bob Ackles, director of college scouting for the Arizona Cardinals.

Ackles is being kind, because as the teams prepare for the 59th annual draft, which begins at 3:30 p.m., the scouts aren't exactly salivating.

"It's a cyclical thing," said Dick Steinberg, general manager of the New York Jets. "We've been of the opinion that the talent lately has not been as plentiful as it was in the 1970s and early 1980s, but we've had better drafts than this in recent years."

It's a symbol of this year's draft that the glamour player in college football last year -- Heisman Trophy winner Charlie Ward of Florida State -- not only isn't rated as a top prospect, he isn't sure he'll play in the NFL. He's interested in the NBA and might opt for the Canadian Football League so he can play both sports.

There are only four marquee players -- all underclassmen -- at the top of the draft.

The players with the can't-miss tag are defensive lineman Dan Wilkinson of Ohio State, running back Marshall Faulk of San Diego State and two quarterbacks -- Heath Shuler of Tennessee and Trent Dilfer of Fresno State.

The result is that even teams in the top 10 can't count on getting a player with great potential.

Of course, potential means nothing in the NFL. Tony Mandarich, Blair Thomas and Desmond Howard were taken among the first five picks in the past five years -- and none of them has lived up to his potential. But players with great potential give teams high expectations.

After the top four, the teams will be drafting players for whom they have more modest expectations.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Sam Wyche, who has the sixth pick, will try to trade up to the fourth spot to get a quarterback or trade down because he knows he can only expect to find a good -- but not great -- player at the sixth slot.

"I think the consensus players stop pretty much at four, but there will be a good player [at six]," Wyche said.

The result, though, could be a much more unpredictable draft than last year, when the first 13 players came off the board according to many pre-draft projections.

The first two rounds will be held today and the final five tomorrow. Also, for the first time, all seven rounds will be televised. ESPN will carry the first 5 1/2 hours, and ESPN2 will televise the rest.

The only predictable thing about this draft is that the Cincinnati -- Bengals will take Wilkinson with the No. 1 pick. He's the top player on virtually every draft board.

After that, things get confusing.

The Indianapolis Colts would seem to need a quarterback after trading Jeff George. But Bill Tobin, the Colts' new director of football operations who drafted Jim Harbaugh when he was in Chicago, has signed Harbaugh and seems convinced he can handle the job for the long term.

Tobin has sent signals that he's ready to pass on a quarterback and take Faulk, even though even Eric Dickerson couldn't turn the Colts into winners when they didn't have good quarterbacking. Nobody's sure if Tobin's bluffing.

The Washington Redskins, who pick third, will take a quarterback. If Tobin pulls a switch and takes Shuler or Dilfer, Washington will take the other one. General manager Charley Casserly said the club has Shuler and Dilfer rated so closely that it spent a week analyzing who is better.

Many football people think the Redskins will take Shuler if he's there, but the Redskins won't tip their hand.

Casserly even touted Dilfer publicly last week, saying he's "more of a prototype drop-back quarterback" than Shuler and is a more accurate thrower while Shuler is more mobile.

Since accuracy is critical in new coach Norv Turner's system, that would be an argument for Dilfer. But since football people like to blow smoke before the draft, it's assumed that the more Casserly talks about Dilfer, the more it means he's planning to take Shuler.

Mike Sullivan, Dilfer's agent, said the Redskins won't indicate a preference because if the Colts take a quarterback, they will claim the one they get is the one they really wanted.

If Tobin takes Faulk, it means New England coach Bill Parcells will find a top quarterback still on the board when he makes the fourth selection. But since he took Drew Bledsoe last year, Parcells isn't interested in a quarterback.

That means teams that are interested are calling.

"I've had some inquiries already about that," Parcells said.

Los Angeles Rams coach Chuck Knox is warning teams that if they want a quarterback, they have to trade with the Patriots. He said he'll take a quarterback with the fifth pick if Shuler or Dilfer fall that far.

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