Many indexes hit all-time highs Dow is up, too

The Ticker

February 03, 1994|By Julius Westheimer

Lower interest rates propelled the Dow Jones industrial average to an 11.53 point gain yesterday. At the closing bell the Dow indicator stood at 3,975.54, about three points below its record close set Monday. All other popular averages except the Nasdaq over-the-counter index closed at all-time highs yesterday.

YOU SAID IT (cont'd): Here are more of your postcard comments in our Dow Jones forecasting contest, now closed: "I'll predict Dow Jones year-end 3,201 because whatever health plan passes will hurt the stock market this year." (James Sacra) . . . "I say 4,060 because what goes up must come down, but not all the way." (Len Morgan) . . . "I think there will be more jobs in 1994, so I'll say 4,004." (Dorothy Lazik) . . . "Up, up and away, what will it be on that memorable day? 4,122." (Shirley Formwalt) . . . "A simple guess, nothing else: 4,150." (Allen Mews) . . . "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates are down. This helps to keep stock prices up, so I'm bullish. I predict Dow Jones 3,993 for year-end." (Joseph Lerner) . . . "The low 3 percent dividend yield can't be ignored forever, so I'll predict a drop to 3,580." (Keith Harmeyer.) More of your comments next Tuesday.

STARTING OUT? Here are "12 Stock Ideas for Beginning Portfolios" from Better Investing, the publication of the National Association of Investment Clubs. The text says, "These stocks are now attractively priced and have the potential to double in the next five years." Current dividend percentage yields follow each stock: Abbott Labs 2.5, Colgate-Palmolive 2.4, Disney 0.6, H. B. Fuller 1.6, Ionics zero, Merck 3.3, Newell 1.8, Pepsico 1.6, St. Jude Medical 1.5, Schlumberger 1.9, Sea Containers 4.5 and WMX Technologies (formerly Waste Management) 2.4.

LOOKING BACK: Knowing that I collect old New Yorker magazines, a thoughtful reader sent me a copy of the issue of May 16, 1936 (15 cents). Some advertised products: Ladies Kayser pajamas $2; Pontiac 8-cylinder auto ("The lowest-priced eight built by General Motors") $730; Arrow shirts ("Sanforized Shrunk -- a new shirt if one ever shrinks.") $2 to $3.50; Cadillac Touring Sedan ("The Royal Family of Motordom.") $1,645; Old Bushmills 9-Year Old Imported Brand Irish Whiskey 4/5 quart $3.29; Birds-Eye Frosted Foods ("Only 35 cents brings you a box bulging with at least a dozen and a half Birds-Eye Bluepoint Oysters. Less than 2 cents apiece!") . . . Dick Stabile, his saxophone and all-star orchestra, Hotel Lincoln, Dinner from $1, no cover charge . . . Plymouth Road King 5-passenger sedan $685.

LOOKING AHEAD: "The bull market continues to age amazingly slowly, and any risks here remain acceptably low as far as major institutional money managers are concerned." ( Walter Deemer's Market Strategies and Insights) . . . "With the seasonal January strength now potentially set to dissipate, the remaining props under the market may fade quickly." (Yankee Prognostics) . . . "Our homework tells us that corporate earnings will be much better than the consensus expects, and if that's the case, the bull market could be much stronger than we calculated." (Ruta Financial Newsletter) . . . "We expect share prices to continue advancing, perhaps only stumbling for technical reasons as the Dow breaks 4,000." (Vickers Weekly Insider Report.)

FEBRUARY FINDINGS: T. Rowe Price is listed under "Comparison Shopping for IRAs" in Business Week, Jan. 31. The listing says, "$10 annual fee, waived if more than $5,000" . . . The same issue says that if you had invested $10,000 one year ago in foreign stocks, you would now have $14,039; in U.S. stocks $11,172 and in Treasury bonds $12,171. Stated another way, 1993 was a good year for stocks and bonds . . . Speaking of bonds, Malcolm S. Forbes Jr., editor-in-chief of Forbes, says, "By year's end, long-term Treasury bond yields will be below 6 percent." Mr. Forbes adds, in his magazine's issue of Jan. 31, "If the Administration does its worst against the Federal Reserve, the bond market's reaction will be so severe that the White House will be forced to retreat."

NOTES & QUOTES: Tomorrow night, "Wall Street Week With Louis Rukeyser" is titled "The Big Picture," with guest H. Bradlee Perry, senior partner, David L. Babson & Co., with panelists Eddie Brown, Michael Holland and Mr. Ticker . . . On Wednesday, Baltimore Security Analysts will feature Jude Wanniski, president, Polyconomics Inc., Sheraton Inner Harbor at noon. (On the horizon: Wednesday, March 2: Coca-Cola Enterprises) . . . If you want a helpful, free booklet called "1993 Taxes and Mutual Funds," prepared by Invesco Funds Group, call 1-(800)-525-8085 . . .

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