Wall Streeters try to divine the Clinton effect

The Ticker

November 12, 1992|By Julius Westheimer

Almost erasing Tuesday's 15 1/2 -point loss, the Dow Jones industrial average gained 14 3/4 points yesterday, closing at 3,240.33. The S.& P. 500, American and NASDAQ exchange indices also posted gains.

CLINTON & WALL ST.: "Interest rates will go lower with Clinton, down to maybe 7 percent on long bonds." (Henry Kaufman, former interest rate guru with Salomon Bros.) . . . "It is remarkable that the stock market has acted so well. It's because corporate profits will rise dramatically, due to employment cutbacks, when the economy improves." (Robert Wilson, successful investor) . . . "The Clinton administration will have trouble with the stock market in its first year because we're in an aging market cycle. The bull market, which will probably end by early 1993, would have ended no matter who won." (Robert Farrell, Merrill Lynch chief technician) . . . "Investors will have a difficult time making as much money during Bill Clinton's presidency as they did under the Bush administration. The market is not priced at a level that allows for an expansion of stock values." (Mutual Fund Forecaster)

MORE ABOUT CLINTON: "I see a postelection Clinton rally." (Gerald Simmons, institutional trading head, Interstate-Johnson Lane) . . . "Small stocks have always done better under Democrats." (Ned Davis, Ned Davis Research) . . . "Infrastructure and pollution control stocks play directly into some of Clinton's themes and you can't pave highways without asphalt and concrete. I like Florida Rock Industries and CalMat." (Scott Black, Delphi Management) . . . "The market is now poised for a major, sustained advance. Risk is minimal, upside potential substantial." (Sadoff's Major Trends) . . . "Recent stock weakness below Dow Jones 3,275 has presented investors with a rare buying opportunity." (Bob Brinker's Marketimer) . . . "All of our animal spirit indicators are headed South. We don't know whether it will be a big bear like 1974 or a little bear like 1983 but we suspect the former." (Turning Points)

FALLING LEAVES: The Kiplinger Washington Letter feels that the election result will have little effect on the economy in 1993 because the recovery will creep ahead no matter who won. The letter adds that even if President-elect Clinton wanted to, he couldn't spend money too freely because of the monstrous budget deficit. . . . Tomorrow night, "What Now?" is the subject on "Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser" with guest David Shulman, chief equity strategist, Salomon Bros., and panelists Eddie Brown, Frank Cappiello and Mary Farrell. . . . Hopefully helpful: Regarding tax planning under the Clinton administration, high-income taxpayers may want to accelerate income into 1992 if they can, to beat a possible 1993 tax increase. See your accountant.

WORKPLACE WISDOM: National Business Employment Weekly, on newsstands this week, runs an encouraging article on job hunting in the food marketing area. Excerpts: "After several weak years, the supermarket industry's appetite for hiring is beginning to improve. . . . Companies realize that they need to strengthen the team and bring others in. . . . Talented leaders who can improve efficiency are in demand. . . . Call a few price clubs' headquarters and ask whether they plan to open a branch any time soon. . . . Recruiters have numerous openings for talented supermarket managers."

NOVEMBER NOTES: Thursday, Nov. 19, Baltimore Security Analysts host Armstrong World with its chairman and CEO, William Adams, at the downtown Sheraton at noon. Meetings on the horizon: Dec. 1, Alex Brown; Dec. 15, Merrill Lynch's Robert Farrell. . . . "Taxpayer mistake: personally attending an audit, even if the issues appear simple. IRS agents know taxpayers talk too much in audits, showing auditors where to look more closely." (30-year IRS employee who asked anonymity) . . . "Index funds -- funds that duplicate various stock averages -- aren't very exciting. All they do is make money." (Kiplinger's Personal Finance magazine) . . . "It's rare for stocks to endure two straight years of puny returns, so 1993 should beat 1992, based on probabilities alone." (Zacks Investment Research)

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