Stocks gain only 1% in 3 months

The Ticker

September 22, 1992|By Julius Westheimer

Edging lower, the Dow Jones average gave up six points yesterday, closing at 3,320.08. Since today marks autumn's beginning, I checked to see how much the widely predicted "summer rally" added to stock prices. Result? The three-month advance was almost non-existent, with the Dow adding only 34 points, or 1 percent.

TAKE YOUR CHOICE: "It's going to take longer than usual to come out of this recession; stocks are way ahead of themselves." (Monte Gordon, retired adviser) . . . "Stocks will continue higher because individuals have lots of cash. Buy the high-quality growth issues." (Laszlo Birinyi) . . . "The big growth stocks need a rest. Instead, buy Au Bon Pain, Shawmut, Citicorp, MCI and two-year, 4 percent Treasuries. Most people have the knowledge to be successful; they just don't have the stomach. All you need is a few triples in a decade." (Peter Lynch, retired manager, Fidelity Magellan Find). Above quotes from "Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser."

RAGING BULL: "Abby Cohen, co-chair of Goldman Sachs' Investment Committee, is very bullish. She's convinced that the market is under valued and a compelling buy. She sees the Dow Jones average rising to 3,500-3,600 in the next 6-12 months, and [thinks] stocks could even go 20 percent higher, to nearly 4,000. She advises her clients to invest 70 percent in stocks, 25 percent in long bonds, 5 percent in cash. She feels earnings will rise 12 percent this year and another 12 percent in 1993. Her favorites: Sara Lee, Tambrands, Merck, Pfizer, U.S. Healthcare, etc." (Business Week, Sept. 21.)

BEARISH VIEWS: "Considering that this bull market is now almost two years old and hasn't had one 10 percent correction, odds are increasing that we will get at least that, if not more." (Ripples In the Wave Advisory) . . . "With a weak economy, strangled by interest rates and a rising daily deficit, it will be impossible for whatever government we have in 1993 to correct things. A perception looms that the government will default on some of its obligations, creating chaos in financial markets." (Petzold on the Market) . . . "We'reprobably in the last third of this bull market." (Investech)

SUMMARY: Of about 40 stock market opinions I read and heard in the last few days, roughly 30 were bullish, only 10 gloomy.

BITS & PIECES: Good free reading: "Investment Swindles: How They Work and How to Avoid Them." Write Consumer Information Center, Pueblo, Colo., 81009. Ask for Item 5761 . . . Sad note: When Sony put the word out in July that 100 jobs were opening at its new TV assembly plant outside Pittsburgh, some 20,000 people responded. . . . "Boeing's legendary test pilot Eddie Allen was a vegetarian and died crashing his plane into a meat-packing plant." ("Legend and Legacy: The Story of Boeing and Its People" by Robert J. Serling, just out, $24.95) . . . "Outstanding salespeople, like average salespeople, need to have interest shown in their own aspirations and commitment levels. They need the coach feeding back results with praise and suggestions like everybody else." ("Business to Business," Diversified Insurance Industries, Cross Keys)

BALTIMORE BEAT: Tomorrow at 12:15 p.m. we answer your call-in questions on "Lunch With Allan Prell." Dial 467-WBAL . . . Baltimore Security Analysts Society hosts Donald Shepard, president, and Evert Lekkerkerker, senior vice president, Aegon Insurance Co., tomorrow, Hyatt Regency Hotel at noon . . . "We continue to hold a core group of high-quality, consistent growth companies. In fact, we have used weakness in some to add to existing positions." (Charles Knudsen, Investment Policy Committee, First National Bank) . . . PHH Corp. stock touched a 12-month high (38 1/8 ) in last week's trading, while Giant Food sank to a yearly low (17 5/8 ).

FIRST DAY OF FALL: "It's unlikely that the current rate on U.S. EE Savings Bonds will fall on Nov. 1 when the rate is adjusted." (S.&P. Outlook, Sept. 16) . . . Westinghouse is listed under "Five-Star Stocks: Our Buy List" in same Outlook. . . . "You can double your income by switching from money market accounts into long-term Treasury bonds, but don't do it unless you are certain inflation won't get worse and interest rates then rise." (Ben Weberman in Forbes, Sept. 28) . . . "How to Increase Your Influence at the Office" is worth reading in National Business Employment Weekly, Sept. 18-24 issue. ("Be well-regarded by your peers, know how to lead others, use data to support your conclusions.") . . . "Advice to nervous investors: The wisest action is sometimes no action. People trade too much, enriching their brokers and the tax collector." (David L. Stone, 70, manager, Beacon Hill Mutual Fund) . . . "Let your discourse with men be short and comprehensive." (George Washington, 1758)

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