LONDON -- The eyes of Europe are fixed on Ireland with a steady and worried gaze, as the people on that island contemplate economic self-mutilation.
Should the Irish reject the Maastricht treaty on European union in Thursday's referendum, they would kiss goodbye to possibly $9 billion that would have flowed to them out of the European Community's coffers over the next five years or so.
To reject all that, when it is so badly needed in Ireland, would prove once again that the deepest passions of the Irish are not for money and of the flesh but, as they have always been, cerebral and religious.
Europe's progress toward federalism was slowed by the Danish rejection of the Maastricht treaty on June 2. It would be stopped abruptly if the Irish turn the treaty down. For a long time, Maastricht, signed last year by the heads of the 12 EC countries, was the path forward; it would be closed.
Even the widening of the EC, by the inclusion of Sweden, Norway, Austria and other states, would probably be delayed.
The economic superstate some diplomats thought they were bringing into being during those chilly December days in the Dutch river town of Maastricht would be spiked by the Irish obsession with abortion and all its moral implications.
Will the Irish do this? It is not certain. And what in the world does abortion have to do with the Maastricht treaty?
Polls doubted
Recent polls indicate Irish approval of the treaty. Should that happen, diplomats believe, much of the disappointment of the Danish rejection could be mitigated. The other 10 EC nations would be stimulated to ratify the treaty. And at the end the Danes could have another vote.
The treaty would lead Europe to a single currency by the end of the century and would mean more money for poorer countries (Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Greece). It would encourage the creation of a common foreign and security policy, among other things. But it can only enter into force after ratification by all 12 EC member states.
But who believes the polls in Europe these days? In Denmark they said the treaty would be approved. But they were wrong. Less than two months before, the polls said the Labor Party would win the British general elections. But they were wrong.
There is no certainty they are wrong in Ireland. But there is less certainty that, this time, they are right. Late last week 57 percent of those asked favored the treaty while 28 percent opposed. But the no vote is increasing, and the government of Prime Minister Albert Reynolds is a little rattled.
