Beware the market's upswing, analyst says

YOUR MONEY

April 21, 1992|By Leslie A. Williams | Leslie A. Williams,Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. -- In case you didn't know, the recession ended in December. And by July 15, the gross domestic product will be up by at least 5 percent.

Sound like far-fetched rantings? Not if you consider and trust the source -- Elaine Garzarelli, one of the reigning hot stock pickers on Wall Street.

Ms. Garzarelli, director of sector analysis at Shearson Lehman Brothers, is best known for correctly predicting the stock market crash of 1987. Last week at the Boca Marriott at Crocker Center, she took a cautious approach, touting certain stocks but saying the current upswing has to end someday.

The investment adviser addressed a crowd of about 600. Many of them were retired investors looking for meaning behind the stock market's upward swing and perspective on some of the best places to put their money.

Ms. Garzarelli obliged, and then some.

Although the stock market has performed well lately, Ms. Garzarelli wants people to beware. "I hope more people would become negative," she said. "Most people were thinking very bullish, thinking nothing bad could happen."

She said the stock market will continue on an upward swing for about another two months. Then it will stabilize.

Her outlook is based on many factors, the most important being her "buy" and "sell" signals, she told the audience. A sell signal preceded the market crash of 1987.

But what really made the audience whip out pens and paper was when she recommended several industries and their specific stocks: leisure (Outboard Marine and Brunswick), automobile (Chrysler), semiconductors (Texas Instruments), banks (Chase Manhattan), paper (Champion), computers (International Business Machines), airlines (AMR), home furnishings (Armstrong World), newspapers (Tribune) and domestic oil (Sun Co.).

"Buying these stocks is like buying Dow Jones at a level of 1,840. I don't know how you could go wrong," she said.

Ruth Solow, 58, a retiree from Deerfield Beach, Fla., didn't agree with all of the picks -- she questioned the strength of Texas Instruments in particular -- but she said Ms. Garzarelli is a good saleswoman, making everything sound positive. "She's there to put your mind at ease, and she did it," she said.

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