How Dow seers pick numbers

The Ticker

February 20, 1992|By Julius Westheimer

Many readers in our Dow Jones forecasting contest gave reasons for their predictions. Today we publish some of them:

"Bears, bears, everywhere bears. I predict DJ 1,832." (Steve DePew)

"I'll say 1,900. This low number is an indication of low consumer confidence." (Harry Bennett Jr.)

"I go with 4,327. Higher consumer confidence, lower interest rates, expanded business markets overseas." (Chester Lambert)

"My address number and I'm an optimist -- 4,106." (Al Ward Sr.)

"If '92 should come alive/ I see a big 3,555." (Hal Gamber)

"Confidence in President Bush will have the stock market up for 1992, and I forecast year-end 3,588." (Nan Sonderman)

"President Bush and the Republicans have run out of luck, time and workable ideas. The Democrats are overdue to make a comeback in a lackluster year. I say 3,208." (Sharon Thomas)

"My birthday backwards -- 3,250." (Linda Mitchell)

"I'll predict Dow Jones 3,427 because I'm looking for a turnaround toward economic growth in the second half of 1992." (Frank Loeffler)

"3,292 is sure to be a winner/ and I'm looking forward to having the dinner." (Bernadine Cochran)

"I think my house number is too complicated, so I transposed the figures and came up the year-end Dow average, namely 3,406. Will follow your column during the year." (Bill Niles)

"DJ 2,222 because the interest on the debt is climbing toward the total tax income." (E. Russell Marcks)

"My forecast is 2,754. Guess for a mild recovery and market turndown after recovery starts. I entered for the hope and pleasure of meeting Mr. and Mrs. Ticker." (F. Gamer Ranny)

"I took a 10 percent reduction in yesterday's Dow close. I feel just like you -- it's very pricey out there. I say 2,921." (Adolph Paris Jr.)

"After surviving several moves and layoffs at Westinghouse without a change in my telephone extension, maybe it's time to use 3,462." (Randy Thomas)

"I'm a broker at Dean Witter and I forecast 3,509." (Jack Rosenbloom)

"I'm a retired partner at Alex. Brown, so put me down at 3,510." (Bernard Eberwein)

"I'm a retired IRS revenue officer and I predict 3,610." (Edward O'Brien)

"As you recall, I won several years ago and we went to The Hamptons at Harbor Court. This year I say 3,456. Please say hello to your wife for me." (Lois Leuba)

"I see interest rates creeping up and stock prices sliding down as capital returns to CDs and bonds, and therefore I say DJ 2,966." (Milton Goldberg)

"I'm looking for a tremendous stock rebound this summer, and I'll shoot for a year-end DJ 3,610." (Leroy Herman Sr.)

"I forecast 3,610 because the election year and a slowly improving economy will take us higher, and continued relatively low interest rates don't hurt." (Steve Mitchell)

"3,268, the 4 scrambled numbers of my birth date." (Betty Brendel)

"3,637 is my hunch/ I'll settle for lunch." (Stanley Cochran)

"Something good has to come of the election no matter who wins. I pick 3,650." (Ken Burkom)

"I'll go you one better with 2,701. Didn't you say 2,700?" (William Oakley)

"Rising earnings, falling P/E ratios. It'll be 2,910." (Keith Harmeyer)

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