Edging up six points, the Dow Jones average closed yesterday at 2,908.09, up 275 points, or 10 percent, this year to date. Yesterday's close stands about 2,000 points above the Dow level 10 years ago this week (DJ 910), a healthy gain of 228 percent in a decade.
AND NOW WHERE? "Recession is likely to continue well into 1992, with lower interest rates. DJ should hold above 2,870." (Financial Commentator) . . . "Economic valley deepens; reduce stock exposure by half." (Astute Investor, Robert Nurock) . . ."Market has gas for another rally, carrying to DJ 3,100, but soon thereafter a 10 percent-plus correction is likely." (Personal Finance) . . . "Market is OK short-term, but I'm nervous about the 1992 economy; Fed easing hasn't helped." (Martin Zweig) . . . "I'm a long-term bull; this market has absorbed everything thrown at it." (Gail Dudack) . . . "I like Merck, Pfizer, Syntex; avoid IBM, autos, steels. Buy 30-year, 8 percent Treasury bonds and when rates drop to 4 percent you'll double your money and have 8 percent return while you're waiting." (Kenneth Heebner, chief, CGM Capital Fund, 1980s top performer).
HISTORY LESSON: "If '7' is lucky, Aug. 12, 1982, proved to be a very lucky day for investors. The Dow Jones average, yielding 7 percent, closed the day at the lowest point of the decade: 777. It was the buying opportunity of a generation for mutual fund investors. In the following nine years the average mutual fund quadrupled its shareholders' capital. Nine out of 10 funds tripled and an amazing 95 percent at least doubled." (Mutual Fund Forecaster) . . . "The stock market has risen 14.8 percent on average in the 22 presidential election years since 1900, and 20.4 percent in years when Republicans were in the White House." (Business Week).