Dow average not a 'turkey'

The Ticker

November 29, 1991|By Julius Westheimer

The Dow Jones average fell 16 points Wednesday, closing at 2,900.04.

Here are DJ figures for Thanksgivings past, decimals dropped: 5 years ago (1986) 1,920; 10 years ago (1981) 880; 20 years ago (1971) 800. The Dow has more than tripled over 10 and 20-year spans.

WHAT NEXT? "There was a marked increase in bullishness over the last three weeks among market timers who have beaten the market over the last five years." (Hulbert Financial Digest) . . . "Most analysts focus on whether stocks will rise or fall. An easier question is whether they will rise enough to justify the risk. The answer is no; they're still overvalued." (Peter Dag Letter) . . . "Long term trend still favorable." (Dow Theory Forecasts) . . . "Drug stocks are an opportunity on any debacle." (John Martone Letter) . . . "After a short bounce at DJ 2,700, we'll break down through that level by end of January. Don't buy the dips." (Paradigm Letter) . . . "December is historically Wall Street's third best month, topped only by January and November." (1992 Stock Trader's Almanac).

MARYLAND MEMOS: "Montgomery County, Md., is the sixth richest county in America, with average household wealth of $228,000." (U.S. News & World Report) . . . Dean Witter Reynolds' Baltimore office says, "It's time to consider tax loss swapping." . . . PaineWebber's Marvin Fribush (576-3220) will mail, "Is Your Portfolio Prepared for Continued Interest Rate Declines?" ("Extending maturities is the most important initiative for enhancing total returns.") . . . Want to learn more about tax-free bonds? Call Smith Barney's Rick Faby (494-1853) for "Municipal Investor Monthly." . . . Legg Mason says, "1991 earnings estimate reduced for Baltimore Gas & Electric."

BALTIMORE BITS: Steve Stauffer, Dean Witter Reynolds (547-7000), will send a fascinating piece on timing ("The 2,528 trading days of the '80s produced an annualized return of 17.6 percent, but by missing the 40 best trading days of that period, your return dropped to 3.9 (no misprint) percent annually." Stauffer writes, "This may be useful for investors who panic when there are sharp drops, like several in mid-November. Historically, investors who panicked and sold out in the middle of a market correction have risked missing the rapid rebound that has always followed." . . . Alex. Brown & Sons is written up, and its executives pictured, in Forbes, Dec. 9. ("Don Hebb Jr. transformed Brown into a powerhouse in the new issues business, only to be squeezed out of the executive suite for his pains.").

TURKEY HASH: Thursday, Dec. 5, Security Analysts feature Ashland Coal Inc., Tremont, noon. . . . "We suggest that you ask your attorney to schedule periodic reviews of your estate plan and will." (Mercantile Safe Deposit & Trust) . . . "From now on, mutual funds that change managers won't have to notify you." (Kiplinger Personal Finance Magazine) . . . "The most promising stocks are those that have not yet been discovered by experts and big investors." (Michael Evans, adviser) . . . "For a background search of your brokerage firm, call NASDAQ, 800-289-9999." (CNBC News) . . . Tonight, "Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser" features "The Gaming Stocks and Donald Trump," with panelists Eddie Brown, Michael Holland and Carter Randall. . . . "At many brokerage houses, bonuses are geared to amount of stock trading that research analysts' recommendations generate." (Wall Street Journal) . . . Merck and Cisco Systems are recommended by nine newsletters followed by Hulbert Financial Digest . . . "It's time for the Bush administration to come to grips with reality and start dealing with the nation's economic woes." (U.S. News & World Report).

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