Jaqueline Newman has heard all the talk about the end of the nation's recession. She's read about the improved economic data and how the experts think we're on the road to recovery.
But it makes little difference to Newman, who lost her job as an executive assistant. Her hopes of landing another job have almost gone the way of her unemployment insurance checks, which ran out three weeks ago.
"I wouldn't call it a recovery. I don't feel any break. No way," said Newman, who has been reading want ads and filling out job applications from her Baltimore home since January.
To economists, Newman is a flesh-and-blood example of why this has been called the "stealth recovery." What may end up being the slowest economic turnaround since World War II has so far been almost imperceptible to many.
Even in the best of recoveries, businesses postpone hiring until they are sure the economy has revived, something that can take months. But the pain could be prolonged this time by a lack of consumer buying and nagging worries about debt, the depth of the recovery and the fiscal plight of the federal government.
In the meantime, unemployment is still rising in both the state and the nation despite signs that the recession has already ended.
Preliminary data from the federal government indicate that the economy grew by a meager annual rate of 0.4 percent in the second quarter of the year. Unless the figure is revised downward, it signals that the recession technically is over. A recession is defined by a decline in economic growth for two consecutive three-month periods.
The strength of the recovery was further called into question by data released yesterday. The Commerce Department said orders at the nation's manufacturing plants, a key indicator of economic strength, dropped by 1.4 percent in June after rising in May and April.
Separately, the department said the government's main forecasting gauge climbed a weaker-than-expected 0.5 percent in June after gaining 0.8 percent in May. This confirmed the suspicions of some economists that the recovery is going to be miserably slow.
"The recession is over. That's the good news. The bad news iit's going to take a while for things to get better," said Ken Goldstein, an economist for the Conference Board, a New York-based business research organization.
"For people who say it doesn't feel like things are getting better, they are right," Goldstein said.
