The field for the third running of the revived Pimlico Special divides almost too neatly into two groups of runners.
There are three "speed" horses -- Jolie's Halo, Farma Way and Summer Squall.
Then there is Silver Survivor, who runs in the middle of the pack, followed by three horses that come from distinctly off the pace -- Unbridled, Festin and Reputed Testamony.
In order for the come-from-behind horses to have a good chance to wear down the front-runners, they need a fast pace.
Chances are, they aren't going to get it.
The riders of these horses are just too smart to fall into that trap. Whoever gets in front, and that should be Robin Platts on Jolie's Halo pressed by Gary Stevens on Farma Way, is going to try to slow the pace down as much as possible.
Summer Squall almost certainly can't go to the front. He's only had one race this spring in a sprint prep and he simply can't make all the running and have enough left to win.
That means Jolie's Halo and Farma Way can take advantage of his hole-card, force him back early and dominate the early fractions.
Pat Day, however, rides Summer Squall, and he has magic in his hands. He will maneuver this handy colt around Pimlico's tight turns masterfully. It is a track that this colt obviously loves anyway.
Farma Way and Jolie's Halo should have plenty of zip left for the stretch drive if they get away with running slow early.
However, Unbridled will be accelerating and can get by them like he did front-runner Fighting Notion last year in the Preakness. Once again, he will go after his old nemesis, Summer Squall, who beat him last year. Once again, the result is likely to be the same.