Most 'experts' guessed high

The Ticker

December 27, 1990|By Julius Westheimer

With only three days to go, and the Dow Jones average standing at 2637.13 when Wall Street opened this morning, we list today our so-called "expert" predictions for the DJ closing of Monday, Dec. 31, l990. When l990 began, the Dow Jones average stood at 2,753.20. These forecasts were made when this year began and appeared in Ticker on Jan. 11, l990.

In fairness to our crystal-ball gazers, many said, in effect, "I really don't spend much time predicting the stock market -- I concentrate more on stock selections -- but I'll play the game," and with that said, we will list the numbers.

Ranked by optimism, here's the list:

George Bunting, Jr., CEO, Noxell -- 3540; Al Kenzie, mgr., Merrill Lynch -- 3375; Dorrit Westheimer (Mrs. Ticker) -- 3350; Bob Lopez, 98 Rock -- 3250; Lee Seabolt, inv. chief, Equitable -- 3240; Sally Thorner, Channel 2 anchor -- 3200; Monte Gordon, Dreyfus Funds -- 3195; Larry Adam, Dean Witter -- 3150; Jack Wasserman, real estate exec -- 3132; Manuele Wasserman, Pru Bache -- 3125; Craig Lewis, Inv. Couns. of Md. -- 3105; Richard Barbarita, Paine Webber -- 3100; Jim Bigwood, WBAL engineer -- 3100; George Collins, CEO, T. Rowe Price -- 3028; George McGowan, chmn, B.G.& E -- 3025; Allan Prell, WBAL talk show host -- 3006; Ernest Kiehne, Legg Mason -- 2985; Morry Zolet, Ferris, Baker Watts -- 2980; Edwin Warfield, publ., Warfield's -- 2975; Bernard Trueschler, Ex-CEO, B.G.& E -- 2972; Rod Daniels, WBAL-TV anchor -- 2950; Eddie Brown, inv. counselor -- 2935; Raymond Mason, CEO, Legg Mason -- 2900; Reg Murphy, chmn, Balto. Sun -- 2900; Mark Dyer, Ferris, Baker Watts -- 2875; Vince Bagli, Ch. 11 sportscaster -- 2875; Myron Oppenheimer, Security Trust -- 2850; Jos. R.L. Sterne, Sun edit. editor -- 2840; Frank Cappiello, inv. adviser -- 2810; Mathias DeVito, CEO, Rouse Co -- 2750; Mr. Ticker -- 2750; Brian Mund, inv. chief, lst Nat'l -- 2685; Howard (Pete) Colhoun, adviser -- 2670; James Hardesty, Merc-Safe -- 2651; Denise Koch, Ch. 13 anchor -- 2650; Patricia Fanning, Eve. Sun fin. ed. -- 2630; Michael Hodes, financial adviser -- 2550; Rich Dubroff, Wall St. Week prod -- 2524; Robert G. Wood, inv. adviser -- 2520; Robert Fisher, Legg Mason -- 2500; Carolyn Walpert, my sec'y -- 2500; Norbert Grunwald, Gruntal & Co. -- 2480; Martin Zweig, newsletter publ. -- 2475; Rob Brown, inv. strategist -- 2222; Ron Smith, WBAL talk show host -- 1993; Ray Jenkins, Eve. Sun edit ed. -- 1150.

TICKER NOTE: Reversing last year's trend, when 95 percent of our "experts" guessed too low, it appears this year that about 70 percent will be too high. (Who could have foreseen the springtime rush to the DJ 2,999.75 peak, then the Iraq crisis a few months later?)

YEAR-END FILE: Tomorrow night, "Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser" holds "A Look Back at 1990 and a Peek into l99l" with guests Ralph Acampora, James Grant, Louis Holland and Martin Zweig...This Saturday, Dec. 29, I will answer your "money" questions on WBAL Radio from 8 to 9 a.m., with Ron Smith...Our annual Dow Jones contests for readers and professionals open early in January, with prizes for readers (dinners and lunches with Mr. and Mrs. Ticker), status only for the pros...One of my favorite books for holiday giving is "One Up on Wall Street" by Peter Lynch...Only three days left to sell your stocks for capital gains or losses, establish a qualified retirement plan for 1990 and complete a charitable gift transfer for l990 taxes...Beginning Jan. 1, l99l, top income tax rate goes to 31 percent from 28 percent. Top tax rate on capital gains remains at 28 percent, even if other income is taxed at a higher rate. Cigarette taxes go up four cents a pack on New Year's Day, another four cents in 1993. In 1991, the working poor will receive increased tax credits...A happy and healthy New Year to all!

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